India's Fertility Rate Dip: Implications and Forecasts

Key Points

• 1A Lancet study predicts India's total fertility rate (TFR) will dip to 1.29 by 2050.
• 2The replacement rate is 2.1, indicating a rapidly depleting working-age population.
• 3The worldwide TFR has more than halved in 70 years, from about 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021.
• 4In India the TFR was 6.18 in 1950 which reduced to 4.60 in 1980 and further declined to 1.91 in 2021.
• 5The reasons for the decline include family welfare programs, increased female literacy, and women's participation in the workforce.
• 6By 2050, the share of senior citizens in India will be more than 20 per cent, that is one five people.